The Atlantic production line in full flow

Disturbance seventeen is a day into the Caribbean and pressing west at a brisk 21 knots Environmental conditions were already limiting any chance of development, so a self-defeating high ground speed won't improve that. As a consequence, this boy racer is producing slightly less showers and thunderstorms than it was yesterday and has limited prospects. Disturbance nineteen is mid-Atlantic now and bravely battling dry air, slightly to the north of the convergence zone as is heads a touch north of west at 7 knots. This is showing a little organisation and development chances are increasing. A couple of modellers are showing interest in this now. In. My view, this has already drifted a little off the track so if it were to deepen, it is unlikely to touch the Caribbean but I wouldn't dismiss Florida and the eastern seaboard just yet but would suggest anything that develops is likely to be fairly weak. Disturbance twenty is now a day west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west at 8 knots. I am uncertain why the established modellers have lost interest in this as aerial images show some respectable cloud formation and this is enjoying wet air. All positive for the cyclone enthusiast. We will keep an eye on this. Another lusty-looking low pressure wave is about to leave the African Coast and conditions across the convergence zone are improving by the day. In the long range, the American and European experts are hinting that there may be a trough of low pressure off the southeast coast of the United States or near northern Florida in about 10 days time and suggesting that a weak tropical cyclone may form. Personally, I consider this type of long range pin-point prediction to be nonsensical in this area at this time of the season but it has come from some serious sources. Stand easy  

Back