Three system in the Atlantic, all showing promise

Disturbance seventeen is about one day's steaming from the southern end of the Yucatan peninsula, thrashing along at an impressive albeit self-defeating 22 knots. Environmental conditions and reckless ground speed virtually guarantee this system an uninspiring home run tomorrow.

Disturbance nineteen is now about 450 miles north of the Amazon delta and moving west at 7 knots. This has a hint of circulation to it and is in good wet air over water with a slightly higher than average sea temperature, so does have a chance of development. This is a little north of track, so if it were to develop, is more likely to clip the north-east Caribbean, towards Florida and the eastern seaboard, but at this leisurely ground speed, far from certain.

Disturbance twenty is also showing signs of surface circulation as it races west at 18 knots. This is around a day and half astern of nineteen, so the two could merge.

The lust-crazed system that was leaving the African coast yesterday is now seaborne between Senegal and the Cape Verde Islands. This is system twenty-one and is also showing weak surface circulation. Systems closing on one another cause unpredictable surface motion, so there is much uncertainly amongst the chatterers with respect to potential track. Simple mathematics is giving most modellers confidence is predicting one of these fledgling low pressure cells will deepen and cause mischief.

Back to the western sub-tropical Atlantic, forecasters are continuing to discuss a trough off the Carolinas (which does not yet exist) as a long range prospect in ten days time. I can never take long range speculative forecasts seriously at this time of the season, but the idea is supported by some fairly serious modellers, so worthy of mention.

Stand easy 

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