Disturbance nineteen burning a slow fuse

Disturbance nineteen is still burning a slow fuse. Currently tracking along the northern coast of Hispaniola, it is expected to move west-nor'west over the weekend placing the system on a trajectory towards the Bahamas. The system may be a tropical storm as it moves into the Bahamas on Monday. Beyond then the forecast becomes more uncertain. The system could affect Florida and the southeast US coastline, though most of the recent model data keeps it offshore.

Disturbance twenty one has stalled mid-Atlantic. It is expected to eventually drift west, but is far north enough to be running out of warm water now, so chances of development are reducing. A frontal boundary will enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Though model guidance does not indicate tropical cyclone development, tropical cyclone formation cannot be ruled out along these frontal boundaries. Stand easy.