Tropical storm CRISTOBAL at large

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Typical of this slow burning season, disturbance nineteen eventually developed after several days of promise. The system skipped through tropical depression four last night and after being buzzed by a reconnaissance aircraft a few hours ago, is now tropical storm CRISTOBAL. Now centred 275 miles east-sou'east of Nassau, Bahamas and northwestbound at 7 knots, maximum sustained winds are between 40 and 45 knots. Conditions for development are excellent - if you happen to be a storm enthusiast, that is - and CRISTOBAL will become a hurricane beforeTuesday.

The track forecast is starting to become more confident and has shifted to the east over the past 12 hours. There is no longer any risk to the Gulf of Mexico, and the risk to Florida is decreasing. This is set to become a fish storm. Disturbance twenty one is dead central in the convergence zone and moving west at 12 knots. Although development is not expected over the next 5 days, there is about a chance of development in around six days time when it should be located either in the Caribbean or headed for the Bahamas.

A frontal boundary is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Model guidance still does not indicate any tropical cyclone development along this boundary, but this is something to watch. Stand by fish. Otherwise, stand easy. 

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