CRISTOBAL racing east. Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico

General situation Friday 29th August 2014 Disturbance twenty two landed in southern Texas last night and has dissipated.

Disturbance twenty five is a new, weak, elongated trough containing enhanced showers and thunderstorms located in the west-central Gulf of Mexico. This is moving to the north-nor'west at 10 knots. This locally developed cluster of enhanced thunderstorms is expected to move inland into Texas and Louisiana in about 24 hours. Brief sea time will not allow this to develop into a tropical depression however, wind gusts to 45 knots are likely within strong squalls offshore over the next 24 hours with a couple of inches or rain ashore on Saturday. The melee caused by the collision between disturbances twenty one and twenty four has become clearer with the dissipation of twenty one.

Twenty four is now in the central Caribbean and westbound at 18 knots. This is expected to reach the Yucatan peninsula early on Sunday and move across into the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico early on Monday. This is the forecasters' pin-up today, with more than half a chance of developing into a tropical storm in the southern Gulf early next week before it moves inland into either Mexico or southern Texas on Wednesday or Thursday.

Hurricane CRISTOBAL is way out into the north Atlantic now, some 400 miles south east of Newfoundland and making Blue Riband speed to the east-nor'east – last reported at an eye-watering 40 knots. This is at peak now with an HSI rating of 17 (12 size / 5 intensity) and winds of 80 to 95 knots and a tropical storm strength windfield radius of over 275 miles. This is undergoing an extratropical transition. Despite the transition, the system will still produce hurricane force winds on its southern and eastern sides for another 36 to 48 hours. Whilst this is well outside of our normal reporting area, one or two addressees on this side of the pond have asked if this is likely to have an impact on north-west Europe. The current track will take CRISTOBAL well to the north of the British Isles and may even draw fine weather from the south to the United Kingdom. Pure guesswork of course.

Disturbance twenty three is still fighting sand in the far eastern Atlantic as it heads west at 12 knots. Most modellers have lost interest in this system but may reach the eastern Caribbean by Wednesday or Thursday as a tropical wave, when conditions may improve for development. Stand easy.

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