New disturbance headed for Gulf of Mexico

General overview Saturday 30th August 2014

From west to east -

Disturbance twenty five beached as a rather disappointing open wave over the coast of Texas and Louisiana overnight. Game over.

Disturbance twenty four is still today's favourite, but showing a little less promise tonight. This is now in the western side of the central Caribbean and moving quickly northeast towards the Yucatan peninsula, where it is expected to make a landfall in about 24 hours. This is always the test of a disturbance's resolve as it needs to survive a land crossing before relaunching into the Bay of Campeche. Twenty four should arrive in the Bay of Campeche on Monday. It is hard to say how much energy this will have after a good night ashore, but if this still has surface circulation, it may just have enough puff left to develop into a depression and perhaps a tropical storm if it can get enough seatime in before moving into Mexico or southern Texas. There is some slight possibility that conditions will cause this system to park offshore for a while which would increase chances of storm development.

Disturbance twenty six is a day's steaming east of the Leeward Islands and headed west at 15 knots. The centre of this is further south than usual and looks as if it might hug the South American coast as it crosses the southern Caribbean over the next few days. Coastal interaction may prevent development.

Plucky disturbance twenty three is still grappling with Saharan air, about a day east of the mid-Atlantic mark, still pushing west at 18 knots. If this does make the crossing, it will reach the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday or Thursday as a tropical wave.

Stand easy.