Disturbance twenty four ashore set to emerge in southern Gulf of Mexico

General overview Sunday 31st August 2014

From west to east Decision time for disturbance twenty four which has just hit the beach westbound on the eastern Yucatan peninsula at 8 knots. There is always an element of hit or miss when a marine evolved disturbance tracks across land with a second sea area of water ahead.

A slow moving weak disturbance may not relaunch into the Bay of Campeche at all, whereas a well-organised system making a good groundspeed may hardly wink at the brief loss of fuel and energy. Local observations would indicate that this disturbance will emerge into the Bay of Campeche tonight or very early tomorrow morning where conditions are fairly favourable for development for this to become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm before moving ashore again towards Tampico on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Squalls are possible by early Tuesday for the deepwater lease areas offshore southern Texas. However, heaviest squalls will remain well to the south of most of the lease areas.

Disturbance twenty six is a day into the Caribbean and moving to the west at 15 knots. This is about midway between Trinidad and Bonaire - the westernmost of the Netherlands Antilles - grazing the coast of Venezuela, which is sapping its ability to develop. This is likely to continue as it crosses the southern Caribbean over the next few days and development is most unlikely.

Disturbance twenty three is now amidships the Atlantic convergence zone, pressing west at 18 knots. This is still a little north of track with the final wisps of Saharan sand still to contend with, thus development is not likely but this may perk up as it reaches the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday or Thursday.

A new disturbance - designated twenty seven - is emerging from the African coast. This has some decent shape to it and is in fine form to make the Atlantic crossing.

Stand easy.