DOLLY done and dusted

General overview Wednesday 3rd September 2014 - west to east :

Underwhelming tropical storm DOLLY slithered ashore and is weakening over higher ground in eastern Mexico. This system is already downgraded to a tropical depression and will dissipate altogether tonight.

Model guidance indicates that a broad area of low pressure is likely to form next week in the northwest Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. Some models are indicating that at least one tropical storm could form from this area.

Disturbance twenty three is about a day's steaming east of the Leeward Islands and moving west at 15 knots. Conditions are quite favourable for development, but this seems determined not to organise and no development is expected.

Disturbance twenty seven is almost mid-Atlantic now and trudging west at 15 knots. Although now sand free, this system is also showing little interest in any surface organisation.

A new disturbance, not yet seaborne - already designated twenty eight - is skulking around backstage in the skies over western Mali and gathering some impressive cloud formations. This is starting to move and is expected to make a grand entrance to the convergence zone in 36 to 48 hours as a strong tropical wave. We shall see.

Stand easy. 

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