A new disturbance with an eye on the Gulf of Mexico

General overview Thursday 4th September 2014 from west to east -

Disturbance thirty is a large area of disorganised showers and storms in the western Caribbean. This has a twinkle in its eye for southwest Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche and whilst it has no defined track as yet, it is beginning to inch to the north. it is likely that early next week, a broad area of low pressure may form and this will enhance organisation and development.

Disturbance twenty three is now entering the Caribbean from the east. While it is not expected to develop as it moves to the west, it could throw its hat into the ring with disturbance thirty.

Disturbance twenty seven is dead centre now in the Atlantic convergence zone, headed west at 15 knots. This is still not organising. Disturbance twenty nine has appeared in mid-subtropical Atlantic rather a long way north of our normal area of interest. This is almost stationary but seems to be sorting itself out. If this does develop, it will be of no interest to us, nor likely to have any impact on land.

Disturbance twenty nine is launching from west Africa now and moving west at 12 knots. The system is already fairly well organised. There is a good chance of this developing during the next week days as it moves generally to the west-nor'west. Aside from the Cape Verde Islands, there is no immediate threat to land. Stand easy.

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