Disturbance thirty planning a run ashore.

Disturbance thirty has absorbed twenty three and deepened slightly, but is still no more than a large area of fairly tough squalls in the west Caribbean. This still hasn't moved far or developed either horizontal or vertical shape, but is edging more towards the Yucatan peninsula now. Conditions are still ripe for development offshore but interaction or partial landing over the peninsula will sap energy from this. The smart money is still on this making a good show on arrival into the southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche next week, where conditions are also pretty fertile but, like all seafarers, is likely to be utterly useless for several days if it has a decent run ashore in Central America.

Disturbance thirty one is brushing the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. The system will bring periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms to the southeast coast this weekend, however interaction with terra firma is preventing this developing for the time being. There is still a chance that it might deepen if it can drag itself away from the coast.

Disturbance twenty seven is now passing over the islands of the north eastern Caribbean. This is weak and unlikely to remain on radar much longer.

Disturbance twenty eight is a day or so east of the mid Atlantic point and still moving west at 12 knots. This motion should continue for the next few days. It is expected that this will pass north of the Leeward Islands in about 5 days. Stand easy. 

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