Gulf of Mexico threat reducing as disturbance heads ashore

Disturbance thirty is almost stationary in the west Caribbean. Plan A - an advance on the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico seems to have lost its appeal in favour of Plan B - in the finest traditions of good seamanship - an unforgettable blowout ashore in Central America. If current track and slow drift speed towards the beach do not change, this system will disappear altogether over high ground.

Disturbance thirty one is slowly drifting to the north-nor'east along the Georgia and Carolina coast and being absorbed into a frontal boundary. This is likely to disappear over the next day or two.

Disturbance twenty seven is now a day and a half inside the Caribbean and moving to the west and is expected to be absorbed into disturbance thirty once it reaches the western Caribbean in a few days. There is a chance that the northern portion of the disturbance could split and head towards the Bahamas. This has had more than enough opportunity to organise but seems set on remaining an unremarkable tropical disturbance.

Disturbance twenty eight is nearing the mid-Atlantic line and moving to the west to west-nor'west at 14 knots. The system should pass north of the Leeward Islands in about 4 days where conditions are expected to be favourable for development.

Disturbance thirty two has just emerged off the coast of West Africa and is moving west at 12 knots. Modellers have been excitedly developing this low pressure cell, however recent launches from the African coast have consistently disappointed the tropical storm enthusiast community. Despite nearly every established modeller salivating over this disturbance, I would urge caution. There is still Saharan sand aloft to the north of the convergence zone. Stand easy 

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