New development with half an eye on Florida

Tuesday 9th September general overview west to east -

Disturbance thirty remains nearly stationary and has now opened up into a disorganised wave of low pressure extending from the Yucatan peninsula into the southwest Caribbean towards. It is producing some thunderstorm activity but encountering increasing upper-level wind shear. A good development opportunity is almost certainly wasted now.

Disturbance thirty three is a new system which has formed around the Bahamas and is moving to the northwest at 5 knots. Most storm watchers have this strengthening whilst moving to the east of Florida, followed by a turn to the west. It should track westward across the Florida peninsula, then weaken as it encounters upper-level wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico. There is a chance it could be drawn northward into a frontal system currently along the SE U.S. coast. There is a a slight chance of development before it approaches the Florida peninsula, as this is a fertile area of warm water.

Disturbance twenty seven remains nearly stationary and extends from near Jamaica into the Atlantic north of Hispaniola. The disturbance has become difficult to locate and has become less organised. It will likely dissipate over the next day or two with little to no chance of development.

Disturbance twenty eight is centred around 800 miles north-nor,east of the Amazon delta and moving to the west-nor'west at 12 knots. It is producing very little thunderstorm activity due to an abundance of dry air in the area. It will move west-nor'west and pass north of the Leeward Islands on Thursday as a very weak disturbance. Development is not expected.

Disturbance thirty two is centered a day west of the Cape Verde islands and moving west at 11 knots. This system remains a strong tropical wave. However, there is quite a bit of dry air in its path and it is expected to struggle as it moves west-nor'west and passes well north of the north eastern Caribbean Sea in about a week. This system has only a slight chance of development.

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