Disturbance thirty three set to cross Florida peninsula but with low impact.
Wednesday 10th September 14, general overview west to east -
Disturbance thirty has rallied a little offshore the Yucatan peninsula and is expected to move west ashore late tomorrow. The northern portion of the disturbance will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the Bay of Campeche from late Friday into Sunday as it tracks west, but the body of the disturbance will remain over land and development is not expected.
Disturbance thirty three is still at rest over the Bahamas, with little change since yesterday. Most models show this strengthening and tracking west over the next couple of days. This will take the system across the north of the Florida peninsula on Friday, then track across the Gulf of Mexico, moving towards the offshore lease areas by early Tuesday. There is a slim chance that this could become a depression before moving into Florida where it will weaken, reappearing in the Gulf of Mexico as a weakened disturbance due to interaction with land and some unfavourable upper-level winds. As things stand, this will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf as it tracks toward Texas but development chances are fairly low.
Disturbance thirty two centred about three days steaming west-nor'west of the Cape Verde islands, moving west to west-nor'west at 12 knots. This still dry air in its path and will struggle to strengthen over the next day or two however most enthusiasts indicate that this will strengthen in a couple of days, and could become a depression or tropical storm by Saturday or Sunday. This is already a little north of track which is an early sign that it will pass well north of the eastern Caribbean with a northerly turn well to the east of Bermuda.