Peak season passed unnoticed yesterday.

Thursday 11th September 2014 general overview from west to east –

Peak season passed unnoticed yesterday. The first such day without an active storm on radar for 22 years.

Disturbance thirty has thoroughly bored most observers, idly lounging around off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula for the last few days. It is moving west now and will shave the southern Bay of Campeche tomorrow, bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the area. There is only a slim chance that this will become a depression before moving inland into Mexico late Saturday or early Sunday.

Disturbance thirty three is centred around 120 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. It remains disorganised with little in the way of squalls. This is expected to make a track across the central Florida peninsula tomorrow, broadly speaking between Cape Canaveral and Tampa, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico overnight on Friday. It will then track west along the coast and reach the coast of Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi by the middle of the week. There is a slight chance it could become a depression before moving into Florida, and as it moves across the Gulf but little to no impact is expected for the offshore lease areas.

Disturbance thirty two is just short of the mid-Atlantic point now, to the north of the usual track and is moving west-nor'west at 15 knots. This has now dragged itself clear of sand laden air and become a little better organised, and may become tropical depression six later today or tonight. This could then develop further but will follow a track well north of the eastern Caribbean and recurving into the open Atlantic well before it reaches the Bahamas.

Stand easy 

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