Two new local disturbances developing in the west.

General overview Monday 29th September 2014

From west to east –

A patch of shower and localised storm activity over the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak stationary front. This cannot yet be considered a disturbance of any substance and is expected to move to the east-nor'east following the front's migration east towards the Atlantic over the next day or two.

Disturbance forty has formed about 30 miles west of Bermuda and is moving northwest at just 3 knots. The disturbance formed from an upper-level low that has broken away from a frontal boundary – typical of local development towards the end of the season. Showers and storms have been increasing, and the circulation has been building down more to the surface over the past 12 hours. The disturbance has a chance of developing into a weak tropical storm within the next couple of days, however if development were to occur, it would likely remain a small system and would not attain wind speeds exceeding 40 knots and unlikely to reach land areas in any event. This is likely to increase ground speed before merging with a weak, non-tropical area of low pressure to the south of Atlantic Canada.

Disturbance thirty nine is now centred around 800 miles north-nor'east of the Amazon and moving to the north west at 6 knots. The disturbance has weakened since yesterday, and development is not expected. It should dissipate over the next day or two.

Disturbance thirty eight is about two days astern of thirty nine and headed west-nor'west at 12 knots. Development is not expected.

A developing El Niño will create hostile conditions in the Gulf as we enter October. Some modellers are already suggesting that the season may be Finished With Engines by the middle of October.

Stand easy.