Stunned silence from the storm season enthusiasts

General overview Tuesday 30th September 2014

West to east -

Disturbance forty which appeared offshore Bermuda is now 130 miles north-nor'west of Bermuda and northbound at 7 knots. Shower activity has decreased, and the disturbance has become less organised due to strong upper-level shear. Development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is no longer expected.

Disturbance forty one which piped up in the northern Gulf yesterday has become embedded in an eastbound front and is barely identifiable over northern Florida as it moves east at 12 knots. An east to east-nor'east motion is expected with some increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours, but there is little chance of development as it heads seaward.

Disturbance thirty nine is about a day and a half east of the northernmost Leeward Islands and is moving to the west at 15 knots. Development is not expected.

Disturbance thirty eight is a day astern of thirty nine, westbound at 20 knots and weakening fast.

Disturbance forty two has sprung up in the north-central Atlantic and will be of little interest. The disturbance is drifting slowly to the east-nor'east and is likely to weaken over the next day or so.

The Atlantic production line has struggled this season, mainly due to dry air from the Sahara. More dry air is creeping west from the desert again, which may be the death knell for the Atlantic basin this season. Home grown systems are appearing in the north east Caribbean and off the south east coast of the United States, but early wintery frontal activity at southern latitudes is producing upper-level shear which may put a damper on the Caribbean and US Gulf. The chatterers are quiet, Stunned silence, perhaps.

Stand easy.