New Atlantic disturbance and some speculation for the coming week

Disturbance forty four has been identified a couple of days west of the Cape Verde Islands. This is slightly to the north of the beaten track and moving a tad north of west at 14 knots, which usually indicates an early turn to the north. This may bring enhanced showers and storms to the extreme north eastern Caribbean by next weekend, but it is more likely that it will pass north of the eastern Caribbean altogether.

The chatterers are busy talking up a pulse of low pressure inbound from the Pacific which is expected to make the western Caribbean in about a week from now. This conjecture seems to ignore the canopy of upper level shear which has most of the area covered at the moment, so I wouldn't be too quick to start planning on this being anything of significance just yet. Frontal activity does however produce sudden changes in conditions aloft, so it is worth keeping a weather watch.

Stand easy
 

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