Conditions shaping up for GONZALO?

Tropical storm FAY passed Bermuda in the small hours of this morning with a peak speed of 80 knots and is now moving north-nor'east at 17 knots. Winds are down to 65 knots now and FAY is expected to gradually weaken and become extratropical over the next 48 hours as it heads out to sea.

Today's big news is disturbance forty four,currently 280 miles west-nor'west at 5 knots. This is stalling in the face of a frontal boundary to the north, and using the time to draw moisture and heat into a forming vertical column. This may become GONZALO. The system will pass through the northern Leeward Islands later today, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. All guidance continues to indicate that there is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the south east coast of the United States due to the presence of a frontal system over the Bahamas which, during the middle of next week will cause the system to turn to the north-nor'east and out to sea. Though the system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm sometime today or tomorrow, most of the model guidance indicate that development will occur on Tuesday or Wednesday. Winds in the lower limits of tropical storm force are possible in the north eastern Caribbean tomorrow and the waters near the south eastern Bahamas in the middle to latter part of next week.

Disturbance forty seven is around 750 miles north east of the Amazon delta and is moving west at 14 knots. The disturbance has not really organised itself and only has a slim chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few. In any event, it is expected to turn north and head out to sea prior to reaching the Caribbean. Storm cones aloft over the northern Leeward Islands otherwise, stand easy.  

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