Hurricane GONZALO to pass Bermuda

Hurricane GONZALO is about 600 miles SSW of Bermuda. Winds are near 110 knots. The system moving to the NW at 12 knots and will pass near Bermuda on Friday, thereafter to make an unpleasant landfall in southeastern Newfoundland late Saturday or early Sunday as a hurricane. Modellers are taking up a broad area of low pressure piping up in the Bay of Campeche in 5 to 7 days from now.

The scenario being discussed is moisture from the Pacific jumping the fence in 4-5 days and combining with moisture from the cold front currently over the Bay of Campeche. Once the two moisture sources combine, the broad area of low pressure could form. There could then be a chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf of Mexico in 5-7 days. The centre of the low is likely to be confined to the southern Gulf throughout its lifetime. However, strong easterly winds of 25 to 35 knots could spread over the central Gulf due to the strong pressure gradient between a high over the United States and the potential low over the southern Gulf.

This is pure conjecture in my view however an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity with gusty winds over the Bay of Campeche is expected in 5 to 7 days. Disturbance forty seven is near 16.5N, 45W or 700 miles north-nor'east of the Amazon and is moving to the north-nor'west at 5 knots. The disturbance still has a slim chance of developing over the next few days as it moves slowly to the north-nor'west. There is no threat to land. Storm cones aloft over Bermuda. Batten down in Newfoundland.