Reduced GONZALO passing Newfoundland

The predicted disturbance forty eight has formed over southern Mexico and it is already starting to spread enhanced showers and storms over the Bay of Campeche. This is expected to move out over the Bay of Campeche tomorrow. At the same time, a broad low is expected to start to form over the Bay of Campeche and the two will merge. The disturbance is then expected to move very slowly east-nor'east through the Bay of Campeche, reaching the northern Yucatan peninsula late in the week. From there, it may move in the direction of south Florida, but it is also possible that it could move into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in about a week, before eventually moving into Florida.

The disturbance does have a chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone this week. Regardless of development, widespread heavy squalls with some wind gusts in excess of 50 knots are expected to increase over the Bay of Campeche on Monday and Tuesday. In addition, a significant easterly swell will build over the central Gulf under easterly winds up to 40 knots, causing tides along the Texas coast to pile up a couple of feet above tidal prediction. The squally weather should remain south of the deepwater lease areas, but the northern edge of the activity could potentially spread some squalls as far north as the southernmost lease areas.

GONZALO is passing to the east of Newfoundland now, having accelerated to a storm-shredding 45 knots over the ground and nudged seaward, both factors preventing a direct hit and reducing impact. Sustained winds are still estimated to be over 75 knots 85 but will slowly decrease over the next few hours. Once past Newfoundland, it will move across the northern Atlantic and approach the northern U.K. as a strong low pressure system, but far short of its current size and intensity. Winds of strong tropical storm force will probably cause power outages and structural damage ashore in Newfoundland today, but far less than expected.

Disturbance forty nine is a new large, non-tropical low to the north of the Canary Islands which is moving slowly west and is expected to continue through the next couple of days. The low could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the next few days. There is a chance that the low could be declared a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next five days but will remain in the northeastern Atlantic through its lifetime.

Storm cones aloft in Newfoundland. UK press prepare for full steam on terrifying if
less than accurate predictions of doom and destruction. Otherwise, stand easy.  

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