A late flurry of activity in the Bay of Campeche

Disturbance forty eight is now seaborne in the Bay of Campeche, centred about 95 miles north-nor'west of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Squalls have been increasing over the past 8 hours The disturbance is moving to the northeast at 4 knots. A motion to the east-nor'east is expected over the next 5 days. This should take the disturbance to the northern Yucatan Peninsula by late Wednesday. By late Friday, it will probably be located in the vicinity of the western tip of Cuba. Environmental conditions are positive for development, but this will be kept to the south of the Gulf of Mexico and closer to the Cuban coast by a cold front over the southern states. Regardless of development, the strongest squalls could produce brief wind gusts as high as 60 knots in the Bay of Campeche over the next 48 hours. Beyond 5 days, this system could potentially affect southern Florida or the Florida Straits, where showers and thunderstorms will be increasing by next weekend. There is no threat to the north western or north-central Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance fifty is about 400 miles north east of the Amazon and is moving west at 12 knots. The chance of development through the next 7 days is fairly low. A slight enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is likely for the Windward Islands late on Wednesday and Thursday. The disturbance may dissipate by the time it reaches the central Caribbean at the end of the week.

Disturbance forty nine is a large, unpredictable non-tropical low between the Canary Islands and the Azores, and is moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots. The low is currently producing a large area of gales with maximum sustained winds of 45 knots. This system has a chance of acquiring enough tropical characteristics to be declared a tropical or subtropical storm during the next 48-60 hours. In any event, this is not going to venture as far as the central Atlantic, and may even double back towards the African coast.

Stand easy