Stationary disturbance in the Bay of Campeche - destination uncertain

Disturbance forty eight is stationary in the far south of the Bay of Campeche. This is still little more than a gentle swirl of wet air drifting to the northeast. This will nudge east over the next 48 hours but predictions thereafter are all over the place. However, the cold front over the southern states all but guarantees that this will not venture towards the offshore leases or the northern Gulf. The system has a fairly good chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours before moving across the Yucatan Channel. By the weekend, the system may split into two disturbances with one accelerating to the northeast and the other remaining in the western Caribbean. I'd keep a weather watch in southern Florida. Until this starts to move, this is not predictable with any certainty.

Disturbance fifty is a fairly useless tropical wave about a day east of the Leeward Islands and is moving west at 10 knots.. The chance of development through the next 7 days is low. A slight enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is likely for the Windward Islands late on Wednesday and Thursday however, the disturbance may dissipate by the time it reaches the central Caribbean on Friday or Saturday.

Disturbance forty nine is a large, lusty non-tropical low near the Azores and is drifting to the west-nor'west. The low is currently producing a large area of gales with maximum sustained winds of 40 knots and bad news for yachts setting off from the Mediterranean to reposition for the Caribbean season. This system has a fair chance of acquiring enough tropical characteristics to be declared a tropical or subtropical storm during the next 48 hours. Beyond 36 to 48 hours, the low will turn back to the east and weaken.

Stand easy 

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