Tropical disturbance nine headed ashore in the Bay of Campeche

Disturbance forty seven has organised a little and has been upgraded to tropical depression nine. This has started to move east at walking pace towards the Yucatan peninsula where it will make a landfall later this afternoon or evening as a weak tropical storm along the western Yucatan peninsula coast. The system will move across the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the western Caribbean by late Friday or early Saturday. It may try to restrengthen in the western Caribbean sometime early next week, however modellers are struggling with this as the impact of a strong cold front over the southern States and central Gulf of Mexico cannot be estimated. Broadly speaking the less reliable agencies are talking up a resurrection in the north western Caribbean, then moving back into the southern Gulf, whilst those with a more successful recent modelling history suggest that this will fade altogether in the Caribbean. The latter gets my vote.

Disturbance fifty is passing the Leeward Islands now as a week tropical wave and is moving west at 11 knots. The chance of development is very low, and is likely to produce little more than a slight enhancement of showers and thunderstorms The disturbance may dissipate by the time it reaches the central Caribbean on Friday or Saturday.

Disturbance forty nine is still lounging around the Azores as a large, non-tropical low producing a wide area of gales with maximum sustained winds of 40 knots. This system may acquire enough tropical characteristics to be declared a tropical or subtropical storm during the next 24 to 36 hours but thereafter, will turn back to the east and weaken.

Stand easy