New disturbance in dying season

Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to diminish in association with the scrag end of useless storm HANNA, currently located over Belize. Complete dissipation is expected within the next 48 hours and it is becoming less likely that the remnants will produce strong showers or thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Campeche.

Disturbance fifty one has rallied against my forecast of the season end yesterday and has become a little better organised overnight and is now about 125 miles NNE of the northernmost Leeward Islands. Enhanced showers and storms are possible today for the northern Leeward Islands. The disturbance has a fair chance of developing into a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm within the next 48 hours before conditions become too unfavourable but likely to be pushed into the eastern Atlantic by an occluded front along the eastern seaboard. Movement is currently northwest at 8 knots. mph. A turn to the north is expected in about 48 hours. After that, the system will weaken as it turns to the north-nor'east and out to sea.

A weak disturbance designated fifty two has been identified a couple of hundred miles north of the mouth of the Amazon and is moving west at 12 knots. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. Only a slight enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is possible for the Leeward Islands on Saturday and this is most unlikely to develop. Stand easy. 

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