Disturbance three beginning to turn
General overview Monday 1st June 2015
Disturbance two is hanging on by the skin of its teeth, still stalled 300 miles off the coast of Florida. This losing its pressure profile and likely to dissipate soon.
Disturbance three has moved into the western Caribbean and is still little more than an open pressure wave, loosely centred over the Cayman Islands. This is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots and starting to turn more towards the north with a reduction in ground speed expected. This is now clear of the wind shear belt across the entire southern Caribbean but now expecting to be joined by high altitude moisture and muck from the Bay of Campeche which will push it east. This will then cross the Florida peninsular and head for the Bahamas. I doubt it will develop, if at all, before it reaches the Atlantic but will bring rain to Florida in the next 2 to 3 days.