Disturbance three fails but talk of a new disturbance to come

Overview Thursday 4th June 2015

Disturbance three has split into two weak troughs and lost any meaningful energy. One wave has surfaced just to the east of the Bahamas and has been the cause of some localised heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will weaken over the next couple of days as it moves into the western Atlantic. The other weak trough is located in the north western Caribbean. This only has a few scattered showers associated with it but not likely to survive the night.

We do not produce reports for the eastern Pacific, but weather watchers will be aware that major hurricane BLANCA is currently at large centred to the south west of Mexico, following close on the heels of hurricane ANDRES. This is the earliest that two major hurricanes have formed in the eastern Pacific since 1971. While ANDRES brought only isolated squalls to the Mexican coast, BLANCA will bring more direct impacts as it continues to strengthen over the next few days and eventually approaches Baja California. I raise this here, as one or two keen forecasters are predicting some of the low pressure associated with BLANCA to jump the fence and form a broad low in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 8 to 9 days. I'm not convinced.

Stand easy