Generally calm but possibility of development in the west

Disturbances three and four have both lost shape and are now off radar. However, remnant moisture from both has been absorbed by an elongated trough that runs from the Bahamas to Bermuda. The southern portion of this trough is expected to drift west and could potentially acquire some extra moisture from muck coming in from the party in the eastern Pacific.

This could lead to the formation of a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a week or so. There is a slight chance of the low becoming a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. However, if a low does develop, it will probably not generate much enthusiasm. Irrespective of this highly speculative and in my view, dodgy idea, the chance of heavy showers and storms will increase in the western Gulf of Mexico during the second half of the coming week.

Disturbance five has been overwhelmed by dry air in the eastern Atlantic.

Stand easy