Dry air in the east, wind shear in the west.

Disturbance eight has tracked west and north and has opened up a little, extending from south of Haiti to the south east Bahamas. This has accelerated to 22 knots and is on a north westerly heading. This motion should continue, albeit at a slower forward speed, for the next few days. By late Thursday, the disturbance may close on the south east Gulf of Mexico however, strong wind shear is likely to put paid to any development. The disturbance is likely to bring squally weather to the Bahamas today and tomorrow.

In the far east Atlantic, we are seeing the early signs of the conveyor belt of low pressure cells leaving the African coast. In the right conditions, these can become westbound disturbances, any of which can bring drama to the Caribbean or western Atlantic, but a wide belt of Saharan air is introducing dust and sand to the convergence zone, and this prevents early development. The hardy ones still make the Atlantic crossing, and we need to monitor these for development once they enter areas of warm sea and still, wet air.

Stand easy.