Two new unpromising disturbances
General overview Sunday 12th July 2015
Disturbance fourteen has formed in the Caribbean, centred midway between Lake Maracaibo and Haiti. This is an offshoot of an upper-level low-pressure system near eastern Cuba. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring, but most of the activity is a result of the upper low. Once the disturbance moves west of the upper low it will weaken and dissipate. Development is not expected but the upper low will continue to produce heavy showers and thunderstorms from Cuba to the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next three days.
Disturbance thirteen is a new non-tropical area of low-pressure associated with a weak frontal boundary that moved off the coast of the Carolinas yesterday, and is currently located east of the Outer Banks. The system is moving slowly to the southeast but is expected to turn to the east and then northeast over the next 12 hours. Conditions are only marginally favourable for any development. This will track near Nova Scotia on Tuesday and across Newfoundland on Wednesday.
Disturbance twelve is still trudging hopelessly west at around 6 knots. This is now centred about three days west of the Cape Verde Islands. Conditions remain unfavourable for development and the system is expected to dissipate over the next few days.