Reduced chances of storm development off eastern seaboard

General overview Sunday 26th July 2015

Disturbance eighteen is still loafing about somewhere over central-western Florida, embedded in a stationary front. Conditions for development have deteriorated slightly and the keen catastrophists have backed off from their excited chatter about a tropical storm. Admittedly, there is still a slim chance but more likely to develop further offshore in the Atlantic.

As a sideshow, these systems sometimes create a low pressure cell in their wake, but in current conditions aloft, any development that tucks in behind to briefly spin up in the northeastern Gulf over the next couple of days, would move northeastward into Florida without strengthening. Regardless of any development, enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. In addition, periods of heavy rain will continue over southern and central Florida for another 36 hours.

Disturbance seventeen is now a day's steaming into the southern Caribbean and is moving a little north of west at 18 knots. Development is not expected.

Disturbance nineteen is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands and is westbound at 10 knots. Development appears unlikely over the next week.

Stand easy.