Divided thought between observers over storm possibilities

General overview Tuesday 4th August 2015

Disturbance twenty two is currently crossing Cape Hatteras on a north easterly heading at 12 knots, outbound for orders, but in all likelihood, set to dissipate with only a slight chance of development. The muck and filth it has left in its wake over the Carolinas, Georgia and north Florida are likely to give way to sunshine in the next 24 hours.

Disturbance twenty one is now around 300 miles north-nor'east of the Amazon delta and strolling nonchantly west at a little more than walking pace. Some gradual acceleration is likely over the next few days as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, where it will bring enhanced showers and storms from Friday onwards. Development appears unlikely.

Disturbance twenty three left the African coast overnight and charged into the Atlantic like a bull at a gate. This will move west at between 10-15 knots over the next few days. Sadly for the enthusiastic observer, the latest models have backed off slightly on development as it hits seaborne Saharan sand. But not all. There is currently some divided opinion on storm development over the coming weeks. There seems to be a collective thought amongst some American modellers that disturbance twenty three – followed by two more from the Africa coast in quick succession – are potential storms. The rest of the chatterers are less convinced. In my opinion, there is too much sand being dragged seaward which is drying the air out across the convergence zone. However, twenty two launched from a slightly more northerly latitude of the African coast where a belt of wetter air may be beneficial, although the track would almost certainly cause them to turn north well before reaching the New World.

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