Frontal systems approaching the Gulf of Mexico

General overview Tuesday 11th August 2015

Today is typically the start of the peak storm season with a sharp increase in cyclonic development frequency, peaking in about four weeks time, then decreasing as rapidly until early October when the season begins to fade. That's the statistics, anyway.

There is no immediate surge in threat, just two weary disturbances seaborne, but a cold front moving south across the continental United States will bring unstable air. Unstable air brings thunderstorms. Thunderstorms bring vertical convection and vertical convection has the tropical storm enthusiasts salivating.

A low pressure cell could move west off the Florida panhandle later today bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Thereafter it will move into Texas early next week as a disturbance and bring increased rainfall prospects across southern Texas and Louisiana.

Disturbance twenty four is crossing the Lesser Antilles now and entering the southern Caribbean but being shredded by upper level shear. This is moving west-nor'west at 13 knots but has no chance of developing.

Disturbance twenty five is a day west of the African coast and is moving west at 12 knots. This has crept north of the convergence zone and lost some energy and moisture as a consequence.

Stand easy