Localised storm clouds gathering over southern states

General overview Wednesday 12th August 2015

Showers and isolated localised storms are forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico along an occluded front bringing changeable weather. Any one of these storms has a the ability to produce a vertical convection chain and may consolidate into a disturbance, moving to the west towards the end of the week. The main impact from this weather feature will be increased squalls for the northern Gulf of Mexico as well as for coastal areas from Mississippi to Texas, but mainly Mississippi and Louisiana during the next couple of days before spreading west towards Texas. Wind gusts over 35 knots are possible within short squalls. The gulf of Mexico is warm and conditions are reasonably positive for cyclonic development. Having said that, there are no objective signs of anything becoming organised, only theory at the moment.

Disturbance twenty four is a day into the southern Caribbean, battling upper level shear and pushing west-nor'west at a slightly high 18 knots, which doesn't aid development anyway. There are few squalls associated with the disturbance but no development is expected.

Disturbance twenty five is a day and a half steaming from the African coast. I still think this is a little too far north of track to have any chance of developing. Nonetheless, this is pressing on west at 8 knots and no development is expected.

Stand easy