Hurricane DANNY. A tiny but tough little bruiser.
General overview from west to east Friday 21st October 2015
Disturbance thirty is still meandering around the eastern sub-tropical Atlantic and has opened up into a wide area of low pressure, parked mid-way between Bermuda and Cape Cod. This is still prevaricating but the smart money is on this becoming a strong depression or a weak subtropical storm and tracking north towards (but only passing) Nova Scotia and Newfoundland where it will bring gusty winds and local heavy rainfall next week.
All eyes on hurricane DANNY of course. I am tempted to be nerdy about this and describe eye wall replacement with enthusiasm, but I will resist the temptation this time and simply summarise that hurricane DANNY has continued to strengthen. Now 840 miles a touch north of east of Barbados and west-nor'west bound at just under 10 knots with winds of 100 gusting 115 knots over a very short windfield of just a 65 mile radius, this is a tiny but nasty little bruiser of a storm. Within the next 6 to 12 hours, DANNY will start to traverse the cobbles of dry air and will face the outer reaches of upper level shear, so may only have a few development hours left, so could be close to peak now with a hurricane severity index rating of 13 (4 size, 9 intensity). Most commentators are convinced that these two mitigating factors will cause a rapid weakening and are now suggesting that DANNY will lose hurricane status before reaching the Caribbean. I'd be cautious. We still consider this will be no less than a strong tropical storm when it moves through the Leeward Islands on Monday and will still be a moderate tropical storm when it approaches Puerto Rico on Tuesday morning. The majority view is consistent that DANNY won't reach the Gulf of Mexico but in my opinion, it would be a braver man than I who would abandon storm contingency plans until the glass starts rising significantly.
Disturbance thirty one is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands now and is moving west at 12 knots. The outlook for development is fairly positive for this to deepen over the next 5 days. The early track is a little north of that of DANNY, so the likely path will pass north of the Caribbean around the middle to end of next week.
Another disturbance is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the weekend.; Low pressure cells are lining up now, so a production line of around one disturbance every four days for the next week or two can be expected.
Storm cones aloft over the Leeward Islands and a tough weekend for fish and sailors, otherwise stand easy.