Storm cones aloft over the Leeward Islands
General overview Saturday 22nd August 2015
My apologies for jumping two months yesterday. Wishing the season over perhaps. It's hard identifying disturbance thirty now as aerial images have become rather weak. Let's say 'north of Bermuda'. Still drifting aimlessly, this is expected to move to the north and then to the north-nor'east remaining to the east of the United States and Atlantic Canada. The disturbance has not become any better organised but it may still have a swansong, however the chances of a sweep along the Canadian coast are reducing.
Hurricane DANNY is now centred 590 miles east of Dominica and has picked up speed a little, now on a west-nor'westerly heading at 11 knots. Now with winds of 85 gusting 110 knots, this is still a tough little storm over a limited wind field of just 60 miles radius but is past peak with a current hurricane severity index rating of 10 (3 for size, 7 for intensity).
The current track is expected to continue for the next few days which will take Danny toward the northern Leeward Islands and then the Virgin Islands. As DANNY weakens north of Puerto Rico, it should make a slight westward bend, toward the northern portions of Hispaniola. Wind shear will continue to weaken the system as it moves west and is likely to weaken to a tropical storm before impacting the Caribbean. All global models continue to weaken this storm to an open wave as it tracks near the northeastern Caribbean. The chance of DANNY impacting the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical cyclone is very low but I wouldn't stake a week's wages on that just yet.
Disturbance thirty one is becoming better organised as is passes the Cape Verde Islands and will move to the west to west-nor'west over the next few days at about 12 knots. This is generating some excitement among the chatterers - the Canadian chap has even decided this will be ERIKA. If he is right, on this track it is likely to curve north well before reaching the Caribbean.
Disturbance thirty two has a twinkle in its eye. Not even seaborne yet, this has started showing signs of surface circulation over The Gambia and looks set to make a lusty shot at an Atlantic crossing as it heads west towards the sea at 12 knots. Storm cones aloft over the Leeward Islands otherwise stand easy.