A rumble of thunder in the west

General overview Thursday 10th September 2015

The chatterers continue to talk up a low-pressure cell forming close to the central east Coast of Mexico over the coming weekend. The favoured track is to move offshore and then north into southern Texas with a slim chance that it could become a tropical depression or a weak storm whilst offshore. There is no single convincing consensus however, what is certain is for heavy rainfall from northeastern Mexico into southwestern Louisiana, which some readers will be experiencing already. There is also a chance the system could track farther to the east, spending more time over water and potentially getting stronger.

Disturbance forty is still creeping west along the far south of the Caribbean at 12 knots but weakening in heavy south westerly shear and likely to dissipate in 24 to 48 hours. Tropical depression eight deepened and has become tropical storm HENRI, centred about midway between Bermuda and Newfoundland. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 knots, mainly in squalls well east of the low-level centre. HENRI is expected to strengthen to a 55 knot tropical storm in 24 hours, and then begin weakening after about 60 hours as it encounters cooler water and increasing upper-level wind shear, reducing to an extratropical cyclone in about 60 hours, or about the time it passes near southeastern Newfoundland. The primary impacts to land will be across southeastern Newfoundland early on Saturday.

Disturbance thirty eight is almost midway across the Atlantic but weakening fast.

Disturbance forty one is moving off the African coast now and will move west for another 24 hours before turning early to the west-nor'west. This may bring enhanced rainfall to the Cape Verde Islands over the next two days but is not expected to affect any land areas if it develops.

Stand easy.