Storm cones aloft over Newfoundland, otherwise stand easy

Most modellers have backed off on disturbance thirty nine in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is still expected that a defined disturbance may form by Monday and it is likely that it will bring showers and storms to the northwest Gulf of Mexico but the chance of tropical development is decreasing. The main impact will be heavy squalls during the first half of next week for the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and for coastal Texas and northeast Mexico.

Disturbance forty is centred to the north of Lake Maracaibo, bravely battling west against the odds but no development is expected. The remnants of GRACE are loosely centred over the far north eastern islands of the Caribbean, headed west-nor'west at 12 knots. There has been a significant increase in squalls this morning. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely today for the northeastern Leeward Islands. These could spread into the Virgin Islands by tonight. Upper winds are unfavourable for tropical development.

Tropical storm HENRI is centred around 600 miles south west of Newfoundland and is headed north-nor'east at 15 knots. HENRI is starting to accelerate and weaken now. It is likely to further accelerate and turn to the northeast later today. The storm should make its closest approach to the southeastern tip of Newfoundland by tomorrow morning or early afternoon. Winds near 35 knots gusting 45 and heavy squalls will be experienced ashore as it tracks near Newfoundland.

Disturbance thirty eight is centred around 600 miles north east of the Amazon delta and is moving to the west at 17 knots. No development is expected here.

Disturbance forty one is passing the Cape Verde Islands now and moving slowly west. This has a decent chance of development but the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are robustly protected and this is unlikely to pose a threat to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

Storm cones aloft over Newfoundland, otherwise stand easy.

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