Threats to the Atlantic basin, but none to land

General overview Monday 14th September 2015

Disturbance thirty nine is currently nearly stationary in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where it will remain before moving inland to the northwest. Strong wind shear is expected to prevent this disturbance from developing into a tropical depression. GRACE is little more than a tropical wave now, loosely centred around eastern Cuba. This is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. The weak disturbance will enhance showers and thunderstorms slightly over portions of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday through to Friday but little else.

Disturbance thirty eight is about half a day west of the Leeward Islands and moving west at 12 knots. Development is highly unlikely.

Disturbance forty two is now way north of the intertropical zone and dissipating somewhere mid-Atlantic.

Disturbance forty one is about mid-crossing now slightly north of the convergence zone, still moving west at around 14 knots. There is some confidence that this will deepen into a strong tropical storm over the next few days, but is set to turn early bringing stormy weather to the central subtropical Atlantic but no threat to land.

Disturbance forty three is passing the Cape Verde Islands now, westbound at 12 knots. Conditions are favourable for this to strengthen as well, but set to busy itself at sea only. More threats to fish and sailors, but no threat to land.

Stand easy.

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