Dr Klotzbach's 'boring season'?

General overview Tuesday 15th September 2015.

Disturbance thirty nine is still marginally seaborne, but close to the coast between Brownsville and Veracruz. This isn't really getting far enough offshore to make a nuisance of itself and it expected to move ashore soon. This is causing heavy shower and thunderstorm activity, but if that's the worst we can expect in the Gulf of Mexico, it's not bad news at all.

GRACE continues to whisper a weak swansong as it travels west-nor'west at 12 knots. This is little more than a tropical wave now causing some showers and localised thunderstorms across Cuba and the Florida straits and will bring the same to portions of the Gulf of Mexico over the rest of this week but unlikely to do any more than that.

Disturbance thirty eight slithered past the Leeward Islands overnight into the Caribbean, where a world of pain from upper level wind shear awaits. This is moving west-nor'west at 14 knots. Development is highly unlikely, just showers and the odd squall in the north east Caribbean.

Disturbance forty one is about 750 miles north east of the Amazon delta now and is moving west at 15 knots. The system has become less organised overnight and the chances of this developing are reducing. This will turn more to the north soon and will remain seaborne with no threat to land.

Disturbance forty three is in dry air now and has opened up to a tropical wave, centred about a day and a half west-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west at 12 knots. This looks almost certain to follow forty one into mid-Atlantic anonymity. If it does managed to break free of dry air and strike west, it is likely to turn north before reaching the Caribbean.

Fortune continues to smile on the Gulf of Mexico. Back in May, we reported the widely respected Dr Klotzbach as having predicted - rather unscientifically we felt - ‘a boring season'. No fool, the Doctor.

Thus far.....

Stand easy. 

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