IDA stationary and developing but only offshore

General overview Sunday 20th September

Disturbance forty four is centred around 200 miles east of North Carolina's Outer Banks and banks moving slowly northeast. The disturbance will begin interacting with a cold front over the next 24 hours and is then expected to accelerate northeast along the front and not affect the U.S. coast.

However, a portion of the disturbance could be left behind and eventually move west back towards North Carolina late in the week. If this were to occur, the system would be classified a new disturbance with very little chance of development.

The remnant low that was tropical depression nine is centred about 200 miles north east of the northernmost Leeward Islands and is moving very slowly toward the west-nor'west. Strong upper-level wind shear over the area will prevent any re-development. IDA remains a weak tropical storm.

The centre is offset to the east indicating the effect of upper level shear on the position of the centre, but is not yet disturbing the convection cycle. IDA still has some scope to increase in intensity over the next few days as it moves slowly through in a positive development window but still unlikely to make any approach to land.

Stand easy, ashore anyway.