New disturbance but no threat to land

General overview Tuesday 22nd September 2015

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form this coming weekend near the Yucatan area. The low will likely enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday. A general path to the north is expected, and the low could reach the northern Gulf coast around the middle of next week. Modellers are indicating a large area of 25 to 35 knots sustained winds in the Gulf of Mexico with this low next week.

However, very strong upper-level wind shear is expected to prevent the low from becoming stronger than that. Tropical storm IDA is still milling around mid-Atlantic having overwhelmed tropical depression nine overnight and is drifting east at little more than walking pace. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 35 knots. Little change in strength is expected during the next 3 days. Thereafter, gradual strengthening is possible as IDA begins moving very slowly to the north-nor' or north. IDA will remain over the central Atlantic. There is no threat to land.

Disturbance forty five has formed off the eastern seaboard,This is a weak, non-tropical area of low pressure. This will move west inland near South Carolina on Thursday. The disturbance has a slight chance of becoming a tropical depression before it moves inland. Thereafter, it should dissipate. Some heavy rain is possible over portions of the Carolinas into the mid-Atlantic Thursday through the weekend due to the combination of the disturbance and a trough located to the north of the area. However, any impacts should be minor.

Stand easy.

 

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