IDA fading no threat to land

General overview Wednesday 23rd September 2015

The various agencies continue monitoring a potential disturbance expected to form over the Yucatan and the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest indications are that the disturbance will be a broad, poorly defined area of low pressure. It is also expected to encounter strong wind shear. These factors should prevent any development from occurring.

The main impact for the broad low is likely to be increased squalls for the Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week. After the middle part of next week, indications are that the disturbance will be forced to the southwest, toward the Bay of Campeche. Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that IDA has weakened to a tropical depression and may be close to becoming a remnant low, about 1,000 miles east of. San Juan. The broad, diffuse centre has been drifting slowly south overnight but is forecast to begin moving east this afternoon. As wind shear is not predicted to diminish for at least another 36 hours, there is considerable doubt as to whether IDA will survive much longer.

Disturbance forty five is now about 250 miles east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and moving to the west at just 5 knots.There are no signs of organisation. Environmental conditions remain unfavourable for development. However, the disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and high waves to portions of the East Coast of the United States during the next couple of days.

Stand easy.

 

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