A new system headed for the Gulf of Mexico

General overview Thursday 24th September 2015.

The fledgling system predicted by a number of modellers in the far west has piped up close to the north of Panama and is expected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday night or early Monday. This is currently moving to the northwest at 10 knots. Over the next few days, the disturbance will produce heavy rain over portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula but no development is expected during this time aside from a broad low over the Gulf of Mexico next week, with just an outside chance of this becoming a tropical depression or storm. Regardless of development, the disturbance is likely to produce a large area of squalls over the Gulf along with sustained winds of 20 to 35 knots reaching the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Disturbance forty five is now close to the outer banks of North Carolina and will move inland over the southeastern United States later today. Development into a tropical depression is not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the southeastern U.S. over the next couple of days.

Tropical storm IDA is still over 1,000 miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands and drifting to the east at snail's pace. A gradual turn to the north and then northwest is expected over the next few days. Strong wind shear continues to affect IDA. The smart money is on IDA weakening to a depression or remnant low over the next couple of days. There is no threat to land.

Stand easy.

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