Robust defences protect Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

Disturbance forty six is over the Yucatan peninsula and headed north towards the Gulf of Mexico where it will produce squally conditions over much of the Gulf through Tuesday. The system has only a very slight chance of developing into a depression or weak tropical storm.

Disturbance forty five, which disappeared along the coast of North Carolina last week has left a pressure profile in the region of the Outer Banks which is of some interest. A stalled frontal boundary that extends from North Carolina to a good distance offshore, an upper level low, and some weak troughing near the Bahamas could cause a disturbance to develop in this region over the next few days. Any disturbance would most probably track along the coast to the northeast.

IDA remains disorganised and is expected to weaken to a remnant low over the next couple days. The system's remnants are currently centred around 1,200 miles east-nor'east of the northernmost Leeward Islands and will continue to move slowly and erratically over the open Atlantic over the next week. There is no threat to land.

Disturbance forty seven has been identified, more or less mid-Atlantic and close to the northern edge of the convergence zone. This is moving to the west at 10 knots. The system has a slim chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next three days until it begins to weaken.

Stand easy.