Upper level shear maintaining storm defence
General overview Sunday 27th September 2015
Disturbance forty six is over the Yucatan peninsula where it remains very disorganised due to upper level wind shear. It is expected to continue moving north into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. From thereon, the system is expected to turn toward the northeast and track toward the Florida panhandle. The system has a slight chance of developing into a depression or weak tropical storm before moving ashore onto the Florida panhandle on Tuesday.
Disturbance forty eight has been identified about 550 miles west of Miami. It is expected to move slowly to the west over the next day or two before turning north then northeast. It has only a slight chance of developing into a depression or weak tropical storm over the next few days. Beyond that, it is expected to become absorbed into a frontal boundary.
IDA continues to hold on as a disorganised tropical depression about 900 miles east-nor'east of the northernmost Leeward Islands. The system will remain weak as it mills slowly around the area before it dissipates. Not before time. I'm getting a bit bored with IDA.
Disturbance forty seven is centred about 600 miles north east and is moving west at 12 knots. Wind shear ahead. Pointless even approaching the Caribbean. The system will weaken over the next few days.
Those addressees not already bored into a stupor this season may stand easy.