Storm free conditions continue across the region

General overview Monday 28th September 2015

Disturbance forty six is in the southern Gulf of Mexico currently sat 250 miles southwest of Apalachicola, FL and moving north-nor'east at 12 knots. This general motion is expected to continue, taking the system into the Florida panhandle on Tuesday morning. There has been little change in organisation over the past few hours. Upper-level wind shear is preventing any strengthening and keeping the nearest squalls over 100 miles east of the centre.The shear will affect the system until it dissipates over the southeastern U.S. in 2-3 days. There remains a slight chance of development however the intensity of any deepening reduces as this gets nearer to landfall.

Disturbance forty eight deepened and has become tropical depression eleven overnight. This is now roughly midway between the central Bahamas and Bermuda and is moving slowly west. Upper-level wind shear from the north-west is keeping associated squalls to the south east quadrant of the centre which will make it difficult for this system to strengthen. However, there is a slight chance it could become a tropical storm over the next day or two. It will nevertheless be absorbed by a frontal system in 4 to 5 days without affecting any land areas. Once the system is absorbed, it could bring some rain and gusty winds to southern New England.

IDA has at last been absorbed by a frontal system over 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Disturbance forty seven is centred around 600 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, westbound at 8 knots. The system will weaken over the next couple of days as it meets upper level shear. Development is not expected. This continued good fortune for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should give cause to those exposed offshore workers to dance with joy.

Stand easy.