Tropical storm JOAQUIN creating Atlantic uncertainty

General overview Tuesday 29th September 2015

Disturbance forty six made an uneventful appearance as it skulked across the Gulf of Mexico and is now just an elongated trough of low pressure along the coast of the Florida panhandle and will move inland soon. Associated squalls are well to the east of the system, driven away from the centre by upper level shear. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and isolated strong thunderstorms remain possible for much of the central northern Florida peninsula and the south eastern U.S. but tropical development won't happen.

We have another tropical storm – JOAQUIN. Disturbance forty eight deepened, became tropical depression eleven and deepened again. This is currently centred about 350 miles east of the northern Bahamas and is westbound at walking pace with maximum sustained winds of 35 gusting 48 knots - barely qualifying as a storm. For those who must, the current hurricane severity rating is 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) with a predicted maximum of 10 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 5 intensity) but there is much uncertainty amongst the chatterers. Whilst the reliable European and American modellers take JOAQUIN slowly west for 2-3 days then accelerate it out to sea to the northeast, there is some peripheral talk of a landfall on the mid-Atlantic eastern seaboard. The impact of upper level shear is making this very hard to read and a prediction chart right now resembles a donkey's breakfast. The reliable modellers seem to be opting for this to turn north east and become a fish storm. Two decent modellers have this headed for Maine, whilst the Canadian guy has this making a beeline for Nova Scotia. For now. All are in agreement that JOAQUIN will move slowly west for the next couple of days before being drawn north by an approaching cold front. There is also a strong argument for JOAQUIN reaching hurricane strength near the Bahamas although none of the modellers have this landing in the Bahamas.

What is left of IDA is just a useless puff 600 miles north of the Amazon delta. This will weaken further over the next day or two.

Disturbance forty seven is centred around 700 miles north east of the Amazon delta and is moving west at 5 knots. The system will weaken over the next day or two.

Weather watch needed on JOAQUIN, otherwise stand easy.