Hurricane JOAQUIN eastbound and fading
General overview Tuesday 6th October 2015
Hurricane JOAQUIN is passing a good 600 miles south-sou'east of Nova Scotia, still with 80 knot winds but fading fast as it accelerates to the north east. The cyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-nor'east as it becomes fully embedded in a frontal system during the next few days. After extratropical transition, JOAQUIN should experience a significant deceleration when it approaches the British Isles, although modellers are showing a wide array of destinations between the Shetland Islands and the north coast of Spain, and considerably weaker as it does so.
We made mention of a ship having foundered when JOAQUIN was at peak. Most US addressees will be aware from media reports that the US flagged cargo ship EL FARO has been confirmed lost with 33 souls on board. We often add a little humour to our reports. Not today.
Disturbance fifty is now centred around 600 miles north of the Amazon delta, already meeting upper level wind shear. This has become less organised over the last 24 hours and development chances are now very low. The system will most likely remain weak and continue tracking to the west to west-nor'west over the next 48 hours before turning to the northeast. It is not expected to have any impact the north-eastern Caribbean.