Decrease in upper level shear causing increase in wild speculation

General overview Wednesday 7th October 2015

Upper level shear, the hero of the 2015 season is showing signs of weakening, and it should not be assumed that the season ended with JOAQUIN. A neatly positioned jet stream has all but closed the Gulf of Mexico, but prospects may increase for storm development on a line between Panama and the Bahamas in a week or so. One or two long range modellers are even predicting tracks and intensity, but I would urge caution. Early days.

Disturbance fifty will pass a couple of hundred miles to the north-east of the northernmost Leeward Islands over the next day or so as it curves west-nor'west at around 10 knots but is expected to remain weak and dissipates in the next 2-3 days.

JOAQUIN is dashing to the east now and has just dropped out of a hurricane category but still knocking out storm force winds of around 60 knots, bullying fish and sailors. This is now well clear of our normal reporting area but we are keeping an weather eye on it for the interest of addressees on this side of the water. This storm has been consistently unpredictable in tracking throughout its life and current prospects are no different. Yesterday, the consensus seemed to be between the Shetland islands and the Bay of Biscay, today even wackier, ranging between Cape Finisterre and Casablanca. I notice one of the maverick tracks peeled way towards the United Kingdom, more specifically south-east England. I feared for a moment that the Canadian guy had perhaps seen my earlier report describing his forecasting accuracy as ‘comparable with a blind sniper' and had found my home address.

Stand easy.