Eyes on the western Caribbean, but no threat expected to northern Gulf of Mexico
General overview Monday 12th October 2015
Forecasters are still expecting a monsoon trough over central America towards the end of the week. The eastern tail of this is likely to extend into the Bay of Campeche and into the northwest Caribbean by which time, it should merge with westbound disturbance fifty one, which is currently a day east of the Windward Islands, cracking along to the west at 15 knots. At this time, the greatest threat from the combination of the extended trough and disturbance fifty one is from heavy rainfall over central America where flooding and mudslides are likely. If development were to occur, it is most likely to occur in the Bay of Campeche but there is robust defence in place from the current disposition of the upper level jet stream. Any system that were to develop would in all likelihood be confined to the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico. There does not appear to be any threat to the central or northern Gulf.
Disturbance fifty two is two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving to the west at 10 knots. Wind shear is likely to prevent any organisation from taking place.
Whilst we are enjoying the comfort of having wind shear play a hero's role in defending the Gulf of Mexico this season, it is weakening slightly, hence disturbance fifty one's dash to the west. Admittedly, conditions aloft are not fertile for storm development over the Gulf, however opportunistic local developments are still capable of pulling a rabbit from the hat.
For now though, plain sailing. Stand easy.